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On Tuesday, Kenya went to the polls to elect its fifth president since independence, but
the vote is too close to call. As East Africans wait on the results, it is impertinent to make
sense of why the Kenya polls matter in the geopolitical narrative of the great lakes region.
Many of us are in anticipation of what the outcome of the Kenya General Elections will be.
As East Africans, we are critically watching the ballot outcome. Kenya plays a central role
in her neighbouring countries; Kenya is the central economic hub of East Africa and serves
as the commercial gateway for Central Africa and therefore, what happens in Kenya will
have strong repercussions in the region.
Equally, the Kenya polls will certainly set a precedent for other East African countries to
follow, regarding political leadership and democratic practices. It should be noted that
Kenya did not have an internet shut down in the current electoral process, a pattern that
has become commonplace with many African electoral processes, violence has been
curtailed and the level of transparency through the process has been beckoned as a
breath of fresh air in electoral processes within the region.
It should be remembered that the 2022 general elections of Uganda, were held amidst a
total internet shutdown and with heavy military presence and arrest of political opponents
and therefore, Kenya sets a new precedent in how to organise, non-violent elections, that
among other things is because of their electoral reforms that came after a rather violent
the electoral process in 2007/8.
The intricacies in the region lie in East Africa’s longest-serving Presidents, If removed,
there is a possibility that the region can finally deal with the narrative of a life presidency in
the East African region. The geopolitical placing of some leaders serves for a longer
the entrenchment of particular people’s interests within the region. Kenya stands out for its
the relative stability in a region where some elections are deeply challenged and longtime
leaders such as Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame and Uganda’s President Yoweri
Museveni has been declared the winner with almost 99% of the votes or been widely
accused of physically cracking down on contenders and rendering the ballot void of
transformative and transitional politics.
Democracies require not just presidents who bow out, but elections that are seen to be
free, fair and peaceful. Kenya is setting a new trajectory for herself, but precarious
questions to ask now and beyond the polls are whether the Kenyan election will birth a new
strongman in the region. And will there be a change in the guard of leadership or an extension
of the old rule? Those among other questions are important for us to interrogate and make
sense of.
While we wait for Kenya’s fifth president, it goes without saying that this election is central
into moving Kenya into the space for healthy electoral processes and for a better Kenya in
the long run. Fundamentally, Kenya has many issues at stake ranging from youth
unemployment that has been at a record high for the past five years, and stands at 30%,
Inflation due to the global economic crisis among other issues and consequently, whoever
takes the office of the president, has urgent work to be done.
Tricia Gloria Nabaye
Resident Research Associate: GREAT LAKES INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC
STUDIES.
