As Uganda winds up the two-day presidential nominations for the 2021 general elections, the realities of legitimacy and democracy continue to highlight the crippling electoral cycle of Uganda. The key concerns of the electorate continue to create doubt in the validity of the ballot. For the electorate, the question at the forefront is, “Can we trust that Uganda will have free and fair elections in 2021?”
The complexity of this year’s electoral landscape—from pandemic-related social distancing and the unprecedented scientific campaigns likely means that some of the presidential campaign’s biggest drama will play out in the hours and days after election Day.
Elections in a democracy should be about free and fair elections with a possibility of change of leaders and one leader conceding to another. There’s a growing realization that the complexity of next year’s electoral landscape is being framed by the events that were witnessed in the presidential nominations violence and the outright human rights violations.
Learning from the discontent around the disputed elections of 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016, and how the courts of law failed to deliver a satisfactory verdict with the provided evidence, it is clear that Uganda should be ready to face the realization that if the results of this election are disputed, it won’t be a legal battle that determines the outcome. It will be a contest of political will and power. Pleading with courts and ruling government officials to do the right thing is akin to continuing to believe that the tenements of civility and decorum in democracy still apply in Uganda, 35 years later.
The goal to uphold democracy is to create public guarantees―from elected officials, police and military―that will help to protect the integrity and results of the 2021 elections. Election protection is a non-partisan issue focused on upholding the constitution, and protecting widely-shared values of an accountable government and democratic freedoms.
The media, civil society and the electorate should be focused on protecting the integrity of the elections. With so much at stake, concerns of violence, voter intimidation, arbitrary arrests and the fragility of the voting process continue to front the need for civic consciousness. Democracies are fragile and democracy can fail and what people do or don’t do can determine the direction of Uganda for the next five years. Beyond voting, democracy depends on individuals and institutions that value the integrity of the process as much the final results. Therefore, the credibility of the electoral process will bank on a collective resolve to reduce the risk of political polarization among the electorate because the fundamental demands are deeper than partisan politics.
We need to rethink and reimagine our electoral cycle from the management of candidates to the handling of the disputes that arise from the elections. The nominations of candidates have greatly shaped the narrative for the coming campaign season and how the violence witnessed, presents a grim environment for the months ahead.
The Electoral Commission and security agencies can improve the perceptions of the credibility of the election by improving public confidence in the behaviour of their officials, in the handling of the nominated candidates and moderation of the rhetoric from the media. This can also reduce the risk of election-related violence, because as perceived fairness and credibility of the election increases, the potential for people to engage in violence and dismissal of the election results may decrease.
Against this back drop, the electorate need to prepare for a disputed election and the exigency that will follow such a reality. The possibility of protests, violence and insurgency all threaten the foundations of the democratic system because so much is founded on the general election.
In an unprecedented election season highlighted by the global pandemic, scientific campaigns and low voter education, the onus falls on all the stakeholders to protect the credibility of the elections. Public confidence in the electoral process is on the litmus paper in proving whether there is integrity of the ballot in providing Uganda with its next leadership.
Tricia Gloria Nabaye
Research Resident Associate: GREAT LAKES INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
